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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.