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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.