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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.